What HYROX Time Does a 15:00 5K Predict? (Men)
A 15:00 5K predicts a HYROX Open Men finish of about 59:27, with a likely range of 53:43 to 1:05:48. That beats about 99% of Open Men finishers and implies 3:27 per km on the 8 runs.
Last updated: 2026-10-25 · Free, runs in your browser, no signup
Your 5K, your likely HYROX range
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| Pace on runs | Run km pace | Finish |
|---|---|---|
| Holds pace well | 3:14 | 56:13 (50:48 to 1:02:13) |
| Typical | 3:27 | 59:27 (53:43 to 1:05:48) |
| Fades on the runs | 3:45 | 1:04:03 (57:52 to 1:10:54) |
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Finish Time Predictor
Predict your finish time from a past race, or from your 5K and station benchmarks.
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Open toolA 15:00 5K in HYROX, by division and pace fade
The same 15:00 5K (3:00 per km) gives different finish times depending on how well you hold pace across the 8 runs and which division you race. Pro uses heavier implements, so the same fitness takes longer.
| Pace on the runs | Open Men | Pro Men |
|---|---|---|
| Holds pace well (+8%) | 56:13 | 56:53 |
| Typical (+15%) | 59:27 | 1:00:25 |
| Fades on the runs (+25%) | 1:04:03 | 1:05:26 |
Ranges are the 10th to 90th percentile for Open. Open Men sample: 195,974 finishers. Typical pace fade is the headline figure.
Chance of beating common goal times with a 15:00 5K
| Goal | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sub 1:00:00 | 55% |
| Sub 1:10:00 | 98% |
| Sub 1:20:00 | 99%+ |
| Sub 1:30:00 | 99%+ |
| Sub 1:40:00 | 99%+ |
| Sub 2:00:00 | 99%+ |
Modelled estimates, assuming finish times scatter log-normally around the typical prediction with the range above. Turn a goal into splits with the pacing calculator.
What a 15:00 5K means for your HYROX running
15:00 is 3:00 per km. With a typical pace fade the 8 runs average about 3:27 per km, a run total of 27:36. That run total beats about 99% of Open Men finishers' running totals. The rest of the race is about 27:09 on the 8 stations and 4:43 in the roxzone. See each run in the compromised running pace calculator.
Nearby 5K times
- 16:00 5K, men: 1:02:59
- 17:00 5K, men: 1:06:29
- 15:00 5K, women: 59:03
FAQ
Frequently Asked Questions
What 5K time do I need for a good HYROX?
For a typical result, 20:54 on the 5K projects to sub 1:20 for men and 21:05 for women, while 18:00 (men) and 18:09 (women) projects to sub 1:10. Your 15:00 projects to 59:27 in Open Men.
Is a sub 20 5K enough for sub 70 HYROX?
On its own, usually not. A 20:00 5K projects to about 1:16:54 for Open men, with a range of 1:09:27 to 1:25:08. The model gives roughly a 12% chance of sub 1:10. You would need above average stations and a run that holds pace.
How much does running matter in HYROX?
A lot, but not everything. For Open Men with a 25:00 5K the 8 km of running is about 49% of the race: it projects to 46:00 of running against 40:30 on the stations. Running sets the base, but station strength decides the rest.
How accurate is a 5K as a HYROX predictor?
Moderately. The model's empirical error on Open Men is about 7% of finish time, fitted on 89,202 athletes' run and total times. In practice that is roughly 8 to 9 minutes either way at a 1:30 finish, because two athletes with the same 5K can have very different station strength.
Why is the pace-fade setting an assumption?
Our results data records finish, run and station times, but not 5K times, so the 5K-to-HYROX pace conversion cannot be measured from it. We use 1.08, 1.15 and 1.25 times your 5K pace for athletes who hold pace well, typical athletes and those who fade. Change the setting to see the effect.
Why is the women's prediction similar to the men's?
For the same 5K, women's Open predictions are close to men's, even slightly faster at a 20:00 5K (1:16:20 against 1:16:54). That reflects the data: Open Women use lighter implements, so the stations cost less time relative to running. It does not mean the 5K is easier to run for women.
Methodology and sources
Predictions use the same model as the finish time predictor. Run total = 8 x your 5K pace x a pace-fade factor (1.08 / 1.15 / 1.25). Station time comes from a regression of station total on run total fitted on 89,202 Open Men and 39,382 Open Women results with split data, and roxzone is added as a share of run plus station time. The range is the 10th to 90th percentile from that fit's error plus the uncertainty in the pace fade. Percentiles use the finish-time distribution of all recorded finishers in the division.
Limits: the results data has no 5K times, so the pace-fade factor is an assumption, not a measurement. The tool assumes average station strength for your running level. Pages for each 5K and sex use the same model, so only the inputs differ. This is general information, not coaching advice. RoxUpdates is independent and not affiliated with HYROX.
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